The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil inventories will increase by 0.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2019 and 2020. Rising global oil inventories largely reflect an increasingly weak outlook for global oil demand in 2019. 

Global oil demand will rise by 1.1 million bpd in 2019, 0.2 million bpd less than forecast in the June STEO. In 2020, EIA expects demand growth to average 1.4 million bpd.

As for the U.S. EIA estimates that crude oil production averaged 11.0 million bpd in 2018, up 1.6 million bpd from 2017, achieving a record high for total production and year-over-year growth. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 12.4 million bpd in 2019 and 13.3 million bpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

The reports forecasts that U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will average 0.6 million bpd in 2019, down from an average of 2.3 million bpd in 2018. The United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products at a rate of 0.1 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2019 and by an average of 0.5 million bpd in 2020.

Additionally, EIA forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, up 8.0 Bcf/d from the previous record in 2018. EIA expects annual average U.S. natural gas production will rise by 1.4 Bcf/d in 2020.

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22nd July 2019