This summer, refineries are reaching peak run rates due to high summer demand and low crude oil pricing. Recent midstream capacity constraints widened crude oil differentials, increasing regional refinery crack spreads. Refinery operators take advantage of these price arbitrages and postponing planned maintenance. Looking forward, Genscape expects the U.S. Gulf Coast region (PADD 3) will have a lighter-than-usual refinery turnaround schedule with offline volumes in the range of 430,000 to 535,000 bpd, 95 percent and 94 percent utilisation rates, in September and October. In the Mid-Continent (PADD 2), Genscape expects a heavier-than-usual maintenance burden, with 89 percent and 84 percent utilisation rates, resulting in 305,000 bpd to 460,000 bpd of offline volumes in September and October, respectfully.
To learn more on how pipeline constraints affect refinery turnarounds join Genscape and capSpire for a webinar on Thursday, September 6, at 11am CDT. Genscape will discuss the impact of wide price differentials on refinery turnarounds in Fall 2017 compared to Fall 2018 and how optimisation technology is improving margins.
To read the blog in full, visit: www.genscape.com/blog/falling-refinery-turnaround-season-maintenance-outlook
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30th August 2018